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(02.01.2003)
Budgets of Mass Destruction
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
It should be clear to all by now that what we have in the Bush team
is a faith-based administration. It launched a faith-based war in Iraq,
on the basis of faith-based intelligence, with a faith-based plan for
Iraqi reconstruction, supported by faith-based tax cuts to generate
faith-based revenues. This group believes that what matters in politics
and economics are conviction and will — not facts, social science or
history.
Personally, I don't believe the Bush team will pay a long-term
political price for its faith-based intelligence about weapons of mass
destruction in Iraq. Too many Americans, including me, believe in their
guts that removing Saddam was the right thing to do, even if the W.M.D.
intel was wrong.
The Bush team's real vulnerability is its B.M.D. — Budgets of Mass
Destruction, which have recklessly imperiled the nation's future, with
crazy tax-cutting and out-of-control spending. The latest report from
the Congressional Budget Office says the deficit is expected to total
some $2.4 trillion over the next decade — almost $1 trillion more than
the prediction of just five months ago. That is a failure of
intelligence and common sense that threatens to make us all insecure —
and people also feel that in their guts.
As Peter Peterson, the former Nixon commerce secretary and a longtime
courageous advocate of fiscal responsibility, puts it in "Running
on Empty," his forthcoming book: "In the 1980 election, Ronald
Reagan galvanized the American electorate with that famous riff: `I want
to ask every American: Are you better off now than you were four years
ago?' Perhaps some future-oriented presidential candidate should
rephrase this line as follows: `I want to ask every American, young
people especially: Is your future better off now than it was four years
ago — now that you are saddled with these large new liabilities and
the higher taxes that must eventually accompany them?' "
While in his book Mr. Peterson equally indicts Democrats and
Republicans as co-conspirators in the fiscal follies of our times, the
Democrats should still follow his lead and make this their campaign
mantra: "Is your future better off now than it was four years
ago?" That's what's on people's minds. It should be coupled with
the bumper sticker: "Read My Lips: No New Services. Bush Gave All
the Money Away." And it should be backed up with a responsible
Democratic alternative on both taxes and spending.
That is the only way to expose what the shameful coalition of Karl
Rove-led cynics, who care only about winning the next election; voodoo
economists preaching supply-side economics; and libertarian nuts who
think that by cutting tax revenues you'll shrink the government — when
all you do is balloon the deficit — is doing to our future. And please
don't tell me the tax cuts are working. Of course they're working! If
you put this much stimulus into our economy — three tax cuts, loose
monetary policy and out-of-control spending — it will produce a boom.
Eat 10 chocolate bars at once and you'll also get a rush. But at what
long-term cost?
"Quite simply," argues Mr. Peterson, "those
bell-bottomed young boomers of the 1960's have fully matured. The oldest
of them, born in 1946, are only six years away from the median age of
retirement on Social Security (63). As a result, our large pension and
health care benefit programs will soon experience rapidly accelerating
benefit outlays. . . . Thus, at a time when the federal government
should be building up surpluses to prepare for the aging of the baby
boom generation, it is engaged in another reckless experiment with large
and permanent tax cuts. America cannot grow its way out of the kinds of
long-term deficits we now face. . . . The odds are growing that today's
ballooning trade and fiscal deficits, the so-called twin deficits, will
someday trigger an explosion that causes the economy to sink — not
rise."
The same Bush folks who assured us Saddam had W.M.D. now assure us
these budgets of mass destruction don't matter. Sure. "During the
Vietnam War," notes Mr. Peterson, "conservatives relentlessly
pilloried Lyndon Johnson for his fiscal irresponsibility. But he only
wanted guns and butter. Today, so-called conservatives are out-pandering
L.B.J. They must have it all: guns, butter and tax cuts."
This is so irresponsible and it will end in tears. Remember, says Mr.
Peterson, long-term tax cuts without long-term spending cuts are not tax
cuts. They are "tax deferrals" — with the burden to be borne
by your future or your kid's future.
If this isn't the election issue, I don't know what is.
* See a related article
from Economist > Let
the dollar drop |